Usually these off-year elections don’t heat-up much before six months out, but this year it seems that the race is already on. The highly contentious nature of the year-long healthcare battle, and the disgusting way in which it was waged, produced public ire against specific congressmen and senators. In politics, perception is reality, and the perception began growing that the administration just didn’t get it. The August town halls were a public relations disaster for incumbents – in spite of the media’s constantly portraying citizens as clueless idiots, Members came off as out of touch, arrogant and dismissive. That started it.
The tea party movement took off, and instead of actually committing journalism, the press continued its “clueless idiots” interpretation of the largest grass roots movement since the ‘60s. Virtually everything Washington has done increased voter frustration – bailouts and takeovers, “man-caused disasters”, an obviously political “stimulus” package, cap-and-trade, moving the KSM trials to New York, healthcare, Mirandizing the crotch-bomber after just 50 minutes of questioning, on and on.
Part of the why behind an early season this cycle is that many Democrats suddenly realized that the “clueless idiots” vote. They’re falling away like over-ripe fruit. Almost daily we’re treated to another Democrat congressman or senator who has suddenly decided to “spend more time with the family”. All other things being equal, an open seat is easier for the opposition party to capture than it is to unseat an incumbent. This, added to the dissatisfaction factor, has helped generate an early start to campaign season.
Keeping in mind that the historical norm for off-year elections is for the White House party to lose 3 Senate seats and 20 House seats, it will take a net gain of 10 seats in the Senate and 40 in the House to change political leadership in those institutions. I’ll admit to watching the Senate more closely than the House, because the 60-seat supermajority was razor-thin, requiring absolute partisan lock-step to pass or block anything controversial. The Senate became a laboratory for watching the influence (or lack of it) of public opinion on elected officials.
Of the four open Senate seats formerly held by Democrats (Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois and North Dakota), two are likely going Republican (Vice President Biden’s old Delaware seat and North Dakota’s), Chris Dodd’s Connecticut seat is leaning Democrat, and President Obama’s old Illinois seat is a statistical toss up. The five open Republican seats (Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio) are 1-0-4 as to Republican (Florida)-Democrat (none)-Toss Up (Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio). I see the open seats, as of today, yielding a net Democrat loss of two seats, with five too close to call.
Of the six closely contested Democrats up for election this year, California’s Barbara Boxer and Indiana’s Evan Bayh will probably retain their seats, while Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln and Nevada’s Harry Reid will likely lose theirs. Colorado’s Michael Bennet’s and Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter’s races are still too close to call. I don’t see any Republican seats up for re-election likely to change polarity this year. Another Democrat loss of two seats with two more too close to call.
So as of now, Republicans stand to gain four Senate seats, but with seven races within the margin of error and large numbers of undecided, I can’t imagine that all of them will retain their seats – especially Arlen Specter, whose party-changing repulsed both parties in Pennsylvania. Real Clear Politics’ Generic Congressional Vote switched over to Republicans for the first time in early November[1], and holds at favoring the GOP by 3.2%.
But then, their just approaching the first pole.
[1] RCP averages the following polls for their Generic Congressional Vote: NPR/GQR, 800 likely voters; Rasmussen Reports, 3,500 likely voters; Democracy Corps, 836 likely voters; CNN/Opinion Research, 955 registered voters; and Pew Research, 1,214 registered voters.
Posted
02-02-2010 12:46
by
Eagle Watch