According to Gerald Seib, there are two big questions hovering over this year’s congressional elections: how radical is the mood out there, and do Republicans have a real chance of taking back control of the US Senate? He holds that a way to track both trends is to watch the races in Colorado, Florida, Kentucky and Nevada. In those four states, candidates with Tea Party inclinations and support have either won the Republican nomination or, in Colorado and Florida, are making serious runs for it. A couple of those candidates are people who would have been given little chance six months ago of winning a nomination, much less a general election[1]. I will take them in alphabetical order.
Both of Colorado’s primaries, slated for August 10, are of greater interest than the scant coverage they have received on the national stage. Ken Buck, a Republican Weld County District Attorney, has Tea Party support, while former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton is considered the establishment candidate. On the Democratic side, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, was recently endorsed by former President Clinton, is battling Michael Bennet, who was appointed to the Senate last year when Ken Salazar was named Interior Secretary, and has received the administration’s support. The Real Clear Politics average has Mr Buck leading by 7, and Mr Bennet by nearly 13.
A July 8 Rasmussen survey of 500 likely voters shows Mr Buck beating Mr Bennet 48-39, with 5% preferring some other candidate and 8% undecided[2]. Although this ties Mr Buck’s high and nearly matches Mr Bennet’s low point, these poll numbers have remained fairly stable. The past results are, March 2: Mr Buck by 44-38, April 5: Mr Buck by 44-40, May 3: Mr Buck by 48-41, and June 7: Mr Buck by 46-41. Mr Bennet, the former Superintendent of the Denver schools, is viewed Very Favorably by 18% and Very Unfavorably by 30%. For Mr Buck, Very Favorables total 11% and Very Unfavorables 14%. The July results show that if the margin of error goes entirely to Mr Bennet and the undecideds evenly split, the race is a tie. Those assumptions don’t bode well for Mr Bennet, but there’s a lot of time between now and November. Importantly, however, is the fact that Independents are split more closely in Colorado than in most states. If they start to line up behind one candidate or the other, that will decide the election.
Two national issues have sway in Colorado – healthcare reform and Arizona’s illegal trespassing law.
Sixty-two percent (62%) of Colorado’s likely voters favor repeal of the national healthcare bill, which Bennet supported as a member of the Senate, while 35% oppose repeal. This is much higher support for repeal than is found nationally and includes 54% who Strongly Favor repeal and 30% who Strongly Oppose it. Mr Buck earns ~70% of the vote from the larger group who Strongly Favor repeal, while the Mr Bennet gets ~85% support from those who are Strongly Opposed to repeal. Thirty-one percent (31%) of likely voters agree with DoJ’s decision to challenge Arizona’s law in federal court. Sixty-one percent (61%) disagree with that challenge, five points higher than opposition nationally. More than 80% of voters who agree with the Justice’s challenge support Bennet, while Buck carries ~70% of the vote of those who disagree with the challenge. Both of these issues will be aired in the general campaign, and both favor Independents leaning toward the Republican candidate.
Barack Obama carried Colorado with 54% of the vote in the 2008 elections, but just 41% now approve of the job he is doing as president. Fifty-nine percent (59%) disapprove, and that’s a higher disapproval rating than Obama earns nationally.
If after the primaries these numbers hold, I will probably move Colorado from Toss-Up to Leans GOP, and that could represent a fifth seat captured from the Democrats (in addition to Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota, all currently in my Solid GOP column).
[1] See Gerald F Seib, Tea Party and the Path to Power, in Wall Street Journal, July 13 2010, p. A2.
[2] This survey has a margin of error of ±4.5%, and a 95% degree of certainty.
Posted
07-16-2010 12:33
by
Eagle Watch