Florida elections are always colorful. Charlie Crist went from the nation’s most popular governor, and on some short lists for Vice President in 2008, to being run out of the Republican Party. Even his Arlen-Specter-act of running under a borrowed flag didn’t go nominally. When a candidate changes political parties, his highest approval ratings are usually just before the announced switch. In Mr Crist’s case, he gained 10 points (from 28% to 38%) after declaring his Independence, while Marco Rubio – his Republican nemesis – gained six. Both, it seems, were bleeding off support from the Democrat, Kendrick Meek, who lost 14 points. By May, however, things had returned to Earth with Mr Rubio polling at 39%, Mr Crist at 31% (closer to where he was when he announced his Independence) and Mr Meek at 18%. Twelve percent (12%) were still undecided[1].
The prolonged nature of the Gulf Spill has tightened things up, with Governor Crist marshalling a special session of the legislature to consider a constitutional amendment to ban drilling in Floridian waters (never mind that it is already against Florida law[2]) and Rubio favoring offshore drilling as part of an overall energy policy. Mr Meek continues to be irrelevant, never polling above 18%. As of July 11, the Real Clear Politics average shows Mr Crist leading Mr Rubio by 4.6% and Mr Meek by 20%. Rasmussen shows the race tightening as well, but shows Mr Rubio ahead by 2, 36% to 34%, with Mr Meek getting 15%.
Charlie Crist’s personal popularity is adding an interesting dynamic to the race. He has drawn into a standoff with Marco Rubio largely at the expense of marginalizing Mr Meek (or presumably any Democrat who wins the August 24 primary). Add to that, a plurality of Florida likely voters say they are more likely to vote for an independent candidate this election than they have been in the past, and in a three-way race, a plurality is all you need. A further breakdown shows that 47% of Florida Democrats say they are more likely to vote for an independent candidate, compared to 44% of unaffiliateds and 33% of Republicans[3]. This pretty much nails the coffin on Democrat hopes of capturing Florida’s Senate seat.
Working for Mr Rubio is the nature of Florida’s voters: 46% of the state’s likely voters consider themselves at least somewhat conservative. Twenty-seven percent say they’re moderate, and 26% are at least somewhat liberal. Mr Crist is viewed as politically moderate by 59% of Florida voters, liberal by 24% and conservative by 10%. Mr Rubio, is seen by 56% of those same voters as conservative, 15% as moderate and 11% as liberal[4].
This will be a real test of the Tea Party’s ability to wield practical sway, as their choice of Mr Rubio got him the nomination – not a huge leap, but nonetheless – now they must see if they can overcome the popularity of Mr Crist on issues, and the proclivity of Florida voters to vote independent of party affiliation. The governor is there for the picking, the question is: can they do it?
I’m still listing Florida as a Toss-Up.
[1] See Florida Senate, in Rasmussen Reports, May 18 2010.
[2] The special session met for a couple of hours and voted to go home.
[3] See Florida Senate, in Rasmussen Reports, July 22 2010.
[4] Ibid.
Posted
07-27-2010 9:14
by
Eagle Watch