On the morning of June 28, Robert Byrd, the longest serving Member of Congress in our nation’s history, passed away, having spent 58 of his 92 years in the House and Senate. Senator Byrd was a Constitutional expert, the go-to guy on Senatorial procedure, and brought nearly a billion dollars worth of projects back home to West Virginia. Robert Carlyle Byrd is a legend.

The Mountain State, like most, allows for the governor to appoint an interim place-holder until the vacated seat naturally comes up for election (2012, in Senator Byrd’s case). Democratic Governor Joe Manchin would have no problem doing that, keeping the balance of power in the Senate, except for one pesky thing: already midway through his final term as governor, he wants the seat himself. He could always appoint himself and be done with it, except for one pesky thing: the modern record of gubernatorial self-appointment to open Senate seats is dim, since voters like to reserve for themselves the choice of their senators. Out of nine such moves since 1933, just one governor-turned-senator, Kentucky’s Albert “Happy” Chandler, managed to hold onto the post in the next election. The ideal solution for Governor Manchin would be to win a special election to fill-out Senator Byrd’s term, he enjoys a 71% approval rating by West Virginia voters, except for one pesky thing: there would be barely three months to organize primaries and a general election to add to the November ballot. Under a provision of West Virginia law, the governor can set dates for special elections, solving that problem, except for one pesky thing: as Florida voters found out, the United States Supreme Court holds the view that setting rules and parameters for elections is the purview of legislatures, not the judiciary and not the executive.

Governor Manchin called a special session of the West Virginia legislature to establish special elections (primaries and a general) to fill-out Senator Byrd’s term. After adjourning the first session without agreeing on a bill, at the last minute on Friday July 16, they passed legislation to hold primaries on August 28 and a special general election on November 2, the same day as the regularly scheduled 2010 general election. He immediately announced that his former chief counsel, Carte Goodwin (D), would be the interim senator until the November special election.

Given his popularity, any Democratic primary challenge to Joe Manchin would be token. The two most likely Republican challengers are Betty Ireland, the 28^th Secretary of State of West Virginia, the first woman elected to the executive branch of the government in the state and the first Republican elected to that position since 1972; and Shelley Moore Capito, the daughter of longtime Governor Arch Moore and a member of Congress since 2001. According to a July 8 poll, Governor Manchin leads Secretary Ireland 65%-26%, and Representative Capito 53%-39%.

By July 22, Ms Ireland announced that she would not seek the office, and Ms Capito decided that she would rather try for governor, so businessman John Raese took up the Republican banner against Governor Manchin. In a Rasmussen survey of 500 likely voters on that date, Mr Manchin leads Mr Raese 51%-35%, with 5% wanting some other candidate and 9% undecided. A total of five Republicans have filed for the race, but Mr Raese is the best known.

This race is interesting because there isn’t an Obama-Pelosi-Reid win in the cards in West Virginia. Any Republican win, unlikely as that might be, would, obviously, diminish Democratic power in the Senate. A Manchin win, however, would look more like Nebraska’s Ben Nelson or Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman than Robert Byrd. Joe Manchin has accumulated his popularity in West Virginia by being anti-cap-and-trade (it’s a coal state), anti-tax (West Virginia is a poor state that depends on small business to augment the coal mines in providing jobs), and resisting the Party line on ObamaCare (64% of West Virginians support repealing the law) and Arizona’s anti-infiltration law (65% want a similar law in their state, and nearly the same number (64%) disagree with Justice’s decision to challenge the law), John McCain carried West Virginia 56% to 43% in 2008. The plurality (43%) of West Virginia likely voters view Governor Manchin as being politically moderate, 33% see him as being at least somewhat conservative, and just 20% see him as liberal.

I’m listing West Virginia as a Solid Democrat state, but think a Manchin win will still weaken the Democratic strangle-hold on Congress.