If Missouri is a bellwether, Ohio is a swing state – close presidential elections have hinged on the outcome here.
Here’s my Ohio disclaimer for Rasmussen. In 2004, Rasmussen polling showed Bush defeating Kerry in Ohio by a 50% to 46% margin, Bush won 51% to 49%. In the 2006 Ohio race for US Senate, Rasmussen showed Sherrod Brown beating Mike DeWine by 11 points, 54% to 43%, and Brown won by twelve, 56% to 44%. In 2008, Rasmussen showed Obama and McCain tied at 49% in Ohio, in a race Obama won 51% to 47%. All well within the margin of error.
Sitting Democratic Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher is pitted against Republican Rob Portman, a former Congressman who served as Director of OMB and as US Trade Representative [both, George W Bush], and who is leading in the polls 44% to 40%[1]. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are still undecided.
When polling on this race started on March 2, 15% of likely voters in Ohio had a very favorable opinion of Mr Portman, and 10% viewed him very unfavorably. Mr Fisher had very favorables of 15% and very unfavorables of 13%. After winning the primary on May 6, Mr Fisher was viewed very favorably by 13% of likely Ohio voters, and very unfavorably by an identical number (13%). Mr Portman’s very favorables were also at 13% and his very unfavorables were at 6%. Currently, Mr Portman is viewed very favorably by 16% and very unfavorably by 9%, and 27% are undecided. Mr Fisher earns very favorable marks from 13% and very unfavorables from 15%, while 19% are undecided. Since March, Mr Portman’s base has grown by 1-point, while his “anybody but” anti-base has shrunk by a point. Governor Fisher’s base has shrunk by 2-points, and his “anybody but” anti-base has grown by two. This reflects the race as a whole, where the Portman/Fisher numbers have wandered around in a very narrow band with a large number of undecideds (11%).
You can get a feel for Governor Fisher’s predicament by noting that Mr Portman has support from 85% of Republicans, while Mr Fisher is backed by only 69% of Democrats, with Mr Portman leading among voters not affiliated with either major political party by 20 points. The jobless “recovery” is really hurting Democrats in Ohio, where a lot of heavy industry and manufacturing is located. On other issues, 59% of voters favor repeal of ObamaCare. That’s a bit higher than support for repeal nationally. 58% of likely voters in the state disagree with DoJ’s decision to challenge AZ’s new anti-infiltration law in court. That’s comparable to voter sentiments nationally. Opposition to both of these Democratic policies provides a winning majority for the Republicans.
Polling is still inside the margin of error (±4½%), and with a statistically significant number of undecideds (11%), I am carrying Ohio as a Toss Up state, but given the momentum of events (and barring an October surprise), I will probably be moving it to Leans GOP before long.
[1] Rasmussen Reports, Election 2010: Ohio Senate, August 2 2010.
Posted
08-14-2010 9:51
by
Eagle Watch