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Cradle of a Nation

The state where both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution were written still holds a strong voice every election day. Pennsylvanians are steadfastly independent – and yes, many cling to their guns, their God, and their heritage with pride. It is a swing state, like Missouri, largely because it has two dependably Democratic cities separated by an unpredictable countryside strewn with farmers and small businesses.

My Pennsylvania Rasmussen disclaimer: In 2004, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Kerry leading Bush in Pennsylvania by two, 49% to 47%. Kerry won by two, 51% to 49%. In the 2006 Pennsylvania governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Rendell defeating Lynn Swan by 18, 56% to 38%. Rendell won by 20, 60% to 40%. In the race for US Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Bob Casey defeating Rick Santorum 55% to 42%. Casey won 59% to 41%, the only race to finish outside the margin of error. In Pennsylvania during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Obama winning the state by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 55% to 44%.

Things got off to shady start when it became obvious to the White House that Pennsylvanians were fed up with Arlen Specter’s political opportunism, and tried to buy-off retired Vice Admiral Joe Sestak from opposing Mr Specter in the Democratic US Senate primary. Mr Sestak demurred and beat Mr Specter 53% to 47% for the nomination last May. That victory gave Mr Sestak, a sitting US Representative, a bounce from a 2-point deficit to Mr Toomey, a US House Member from 1999 to 2005, to a 4-point lead. That evaporated within the month, and Mr Toomey surged to a 45%-38% lead, where the race remains today. Six percent (6%) prefer another candidate and 10% are still undecided[1].

In Pennsylvania, as nationwide, a majority of voters favor repeal of ObamaCare (61%), while 35% oppose repeal. This is a bit higher than support for repeal nationwide and includes 46% who Strongly Favor it and 24% who are Strongly Opposed. 71% of the group that Strongly Favors repeal support Toomey (32.66%), while 77% of those Strongly Opposed to repeal back Sestak (18.48%). Also following national trends, 58% of voters in the Keystone State favor a law like Arizona’s anti-infiltration law, while 32% oppose such a law. Mr Toomey gets the majority support of those who favor the law cracking down on infiltrators, and Mr Sestak win most of the votes of those who oppose a law like Arizona’s.

20% of Pennsylvania voters hold a Very Favorable opinion of Toomey, while 12% view him Very Unfavorably. Sestak is viewed Very Favorably by 19% and Very Unfavorably by 18%. Toomey picks up 76% of the Republican vote, while Sestak earns 63% support from voters in his party. Reflecting Admiral Sestak’s attractive candidacy (he has run an honest and honorable campaign), he is one of the few Democrats nationwide to hold a modest lead among Independents.

I’m listing Pennsylvania as a Toss Up at this point, but could go either way – the wild card here is Governor Ed Rendell, who is desperately trying to get Washington to something, anything, for small business. He recognizes the dissatisfaction of small business owners with the administration’s proclivity toward concentrating power in Washington and paying for it with higher taxes. This is poison for Democrats in the countryside, which is dominated by farms and other small businesses. With his own budget strapped, like most states, he is constantly pleading with the administration to help Democrats in the countryside by helping small business.

If I had to bet at this point, I would bet that Governor Rendell will get no relief from Washington and Pennsylvania will go Republican.


[1] Rasmussen Reports, Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate, July 28 2010.


Posted 08-17-2010 7:56 by Eagle Watch

Comments

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-18-2010 4:30

Since this is my state, I have quite a few comments to add and a couple of questions too.

I grew up in rural north-central Pa. You know, "Pennsylvania Guys" territory. But I don't cling to my gunSleep and my Bible. I probably got infected with "Liberalism" when I was living in New Jersey for a couple of years, I guess. Ha ha!

With Pat Toomey being 8 points ahead in Rasmussen's poll less than 77 days until the election, I guess it will take an October surprise in order for him to lose. But I don't think any Dem. surprise will be able to overcome the steady drumbeat coming from the Right. The Toomey supporters are as busy as a group of dung beatles rolling their balls of B.S. up the hill vigorously.

The Captains of the Tea Party Right at FOX--The Republican Broadcast Network--are distracting everyone with their shrill cries of "mosque, Mosque, MOSQUE". And for good measure, all that "repeal or change [re-interpret] the 14th Ammendmant" jabber. As Rasmussen has pointed out, the "illegal immigrant" or (as you have so delicately put it) the "anti-infiltration" movement is a sure winner in Pa. as well as all of the other states. All that Right-Wing ammunition should certainly do the job.

So I'm awarding Pennsylvania to Toomey and the Republics. It is Theirs to lose. If that should happen I'll look forward to reading your explanation as to why. You can inform me as to which dirty trick the Damn-Dems. employed.

Here's my question. I heard Pat Caddell qualify "the Small Businessman" the other day on Neil Cavuto. According to him that's anyone who owns a business that employs less than 500 workers. REALLY!!? My My! How things have changed! A small businessman used to be defined as someone who owned a business that employed less than 50 workers...That's inflation for ya! I guess the new definition of a "small businessman" is anyone who owns a company who doesn't have stock that's being traded publicly on the stock market? It's all his / hers and it's private? Is that it? Could you explain this for me?  

Anyway, I'll be voting for Sestak [the loser]. Us losers stick together, you know. LOL.

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-18-2010 4:49

I have chosen to use the term “infiltrator” instead of “illegal immigrant” because liberals seem incapable of distinguishing between legal and illegal immigrants.  Anyone who objects to illegal immigration is immediately label as anti-immigration.  So, in the interest of keeping the conversation focused on the real problem, I have decided to use the term that most accurately describes what sneaking into a country under the cover of darkness really is – infiltration (a subject, by the way, I know something about).  

For the purposes of the economic discussion currently ongoing, I would consider “small business” to any business that is carried on the owner’s 1040 tax return.  These are the people who show income over $250K, most of which is business income and would not show up on a corporate officer’s 1040.  These, mostly Subchapter-S firms, are extremely vulnerable to personal income tax policies, and are responsible for the lion’s share of initial hires during recoveries.  

In general, “small business” is difficult to define, because it depends on what the conversation is about.  If an all-inclusive definition had to be fashioned, I guess it would have to do with market share within their industry.  This is the problem with Mr Caddell’s definition, a candlemaker with 500 employees would be a major player, but a similar-sized firm in the computer business would be a small business.    

TVNews wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-18-2010 13:20

Libby has a sever case of Fox Derangement Syndrome. Sad, that.

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-19-2010 3:27

You got that one right, TV. But sad? That's a matter of perspective.

Getting back to the subject of this blog, when you say "...cities separated by an unpredicitable countryside strewn with farmers and small businessman", i think we both know that those particular Pa. voters aren't unpredictable in the least.  They have always voted Republican and I'm sure they will continue to do so. The only question is will their numbers be sufficient to overcome the large city voting blocks of Dems. I say probably if you also include the rural "hunter-gatherers" who live in the mountains where I came from and the newest demographic addition to the Republican party ranks: The upscale suburban "soccer-moms" element. That upper-middle class element.

About the use of the word "infiltrator" instead of "illegal immigrant": I think that's very clever of you. The general public is getting weary of the ongoing "illegal immigrant" discussion as both sides have dug in and if you want to appeal to anyone who hasn't made up their mind as to where they stand on the issue, the word "inflitrator" has a very sinister connotation and might sway some of those who are ambivalent on the subject. It should draw their attention if their eyes have glazed over and they yawn when they hear someone mention the "illegal immigration" topic--again.

"Infiltrator" is a War term. And if there's one thing I've learned in the past ten years, if you can couch everything in terms of "We Are At War" it really makes people take notice. If you can manipulate people's thinking and get them to believe that everything is a matter of "US against "THEM" it evokes their tribal instincts and they can't wait to JOIN THE CAUSE!

But I'm getting off track and into the weeds and I'm starting to PHILOSOPHIZE here. [Shudder]. Sorry.  

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-19-2010 4:16

What makes Pennsylvania interesting is, like Missouri and Ohio, the cities are dependably Democratic and the countryside is not – the state goes with whoever can win the countryside.  

As I stated, I resort to “infiltrator” because liberals can’t tell the difference between “immigrants” and “illegal immigrants” when those are the terms being used.  If they could, I would never have searched for an alternative.  You’re reading way too much into the choice of words.  I was looking for a word that was unambiguous as to what activity was being discussed without using a term that would confuse liberals.  If you can suggest another term that is equally descriptive of the activity being discussed that won’t be conflated with “immigration” I will be glad to use it.  

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-19-2010 4:40

PS: “Interloper”?  “Trespasser”?  I would be comfortable with either of those.  

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-20-2010 3:28

For the record, I'd like to clarify my position on the illegal immigration problem. Time to clear the air: I do not condone illegal immigration. I am for closing the border and putting a stop to it. As far as I'm concerned you can call those people who are breaking the law anything you want. None of the terms you have suggested offends me personally. They are outlaws, illegals, infiltrators, interlopers, trespassers--whatever. So we agree on this issue. I think they should be caught and deported. In other words I wouldn't mind seeing the border closed. Be it through building walls or employing troops or whatever it takes. I think we also agree that the logistics of such an operation would be problematic.

I'm just sorry that the whole subject has become an occasion for political grandstanding and demagogue-ing. Just FYI.

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-20-2010 3:36

My problem all along has been OTMs (other than Mexicans), and drug cartel activity that bleeds across the border.  That’s why I get upset, like you, when the discussion is deliberately derailed into the race card.  So here we agree.

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-22-2010 3:04

To your first sentence, EXACTLY! We must stop the cartel drug-runners and the coyotes from infiltrating the country. And if we close the border we can also stop the gun-running into Mexico from our side.

I'm not sure you'll agree with me on this, but I think a long-term solution might be issuing those work-permit cards to those who are only coming across to do day labor. But the only way to make it work would involve closing the border first so you could screen those people to make sure they weren't being used as "mules" for the drug traffickers and gun-runners. Just a thought.

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-22-2010 3:16

I’m not against issuing an increased number of work permits, but the problem – as you state – is distinguishing between benign and hostile entrants, and that involves control of entry – closing the border.  The problem I have with the current “debate” on all of this is the unreasonableness of the left, who insist on “comprehensive” immigration reform, meaning to undertake border control, employer enforcement and assimilation of illegals all at once.  We’ve got that T-Shirt – that was the Reagan plan in the 1980s, and Congress went about pandering to the illegals and then refused to fund closing the border.  I don’t trust them any more now that they earned then.  You can’t have any kind of solution unless and until the border is under control.  I don’t know why that’s so hard to understand.  

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-23-2010 4:23

Although I understand where the "Left" is coming from with their argument, I do agree with you that comprehensive immigration reform won't fix the immediate problem. It might be a long-term solution. I say this reluctantly and with sadness, but I think we will have to build that wall and put guards along it and screen every person who crosses over at the "check-points". Visions of the Berlin Wall come to mind, but maybe that's the only way to handle it. That and also having guard towers and armed patrols covering every square mile with roving spotlights to light up any possible incursions. Not a pretty picture, IMO.

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-23-2010 4:33

Part of the problem – that part which cannot be spoken out loud – is that exporting poverty to the US is an official domestic policy of Mexico.  They have no intention of helping to secure the border.  Over 10% of the Mexican population – overwhelmingly poor – have sneaked into the US, and are sending cash back to their families in Mexico.  That represents the largest source of national income, save oil.  Mexico gets to give us their poor, and they send monies back into Mexico.  Why would they stop this?  

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-23-2010 5:47

You are absolutely right. Mexico won't lift a finger to help us stop the flow of illegals into the country because they stand to lose to much [money]. But they sure would like to see us stop the flow of guns into their country. Damn hard to get rid of the drug cartels when your police have to fight criminals who have state-of-the-art weapons, right? But not at the expense of losing all those U.S. dineros flowing their way...And they also don't like the idea of closing the border because it cuts down on all that U.S. "tourista" traffic spending much U.S. dinero in Juarez and Tijuana...So I guess they love all that "comprehensive immigration reform" talk. (1) It will take years to implement. (2) And it still provides for lots of dinero flowing their way.

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-23-2010 5:58

This is where the Mexican government and American liberals see eye-to-eye – both want amnesty for illegals.  It institutionalizes the practice of sneaking into America and sending cash back to Mexico.  “Comprehensive” immigration reform has heretofore been code for amnesty – either literal or functional (i.e., no real penalty for being here illegally plus a fast-track to citizenship), with little or no attention paid to enforcing even current immigration law.  

I say again, this is exactly what President Reagan tried – a one-stop approach covering border control, amnesty for those already here, and fast-tracking them to green cards and citizenship.  Congress reneged on their promise to fund border security, instead funding the immigration of the immediate families of those illegals already here.  Seven million illegals became 15 million.  This is why conservatives don’t trust liberals bearing “comprehensive immigration reform”.  They simply don’t believe them.  

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-24-2010 4:01

Speaking as a Liberal--but not one of those you are obviously referring to--I don't want amnesty for illegals. But I'm not in favor of rounding them all up and shipping them back across the border either. Because I don't think the old "black and white" approach is practical or will work. I thought you agreed with me on this. I guess not.

As far as conservatives not believing liberals, you are right there. On the other hand, Liberals ((if I may speak for them) do trust conservatives and believe they will do exactly what they say they will do. And for us, that's a scarey proposition! LOL.

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-24-2010 4:12

While I am against amnesty, I don’t believe in “rounding up illegals and deporting” them either.  Nor do I believe in fast-tracking them for citizenship.  They should be deported as discovered while committing other crimes, whether or not they participate in whatever program is enacted to transist illegals to legal status.  

As I have often stated, I don’t trust either side right now – I’m just hoping to derail this disastrous path the current administration is taking.  

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-27-2010 3:22

So you support the new Arizona law. I figured you would. Likewise, I guess you don't have a problem with the question of it's Constitutionality. No conflict with State's rights vs Federal rights. But that would be a subject for another blog, wouldn't it?

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-27-2010 3:37

Yes, I favor Arizona’s anti-infiltration law, and no, I don’t think it is unconstitutional.  It’s not an either/or situation – the Arizona law doesn’t conflict with federal law, it reinforces it.  

TVNews wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-27-2010 8:58

Unconstitutional... Libby, I suspect that like the members of the party you support, you have no clue what is in the constitution.

However, I'll give you the benefit of a doubt. Please show me what part(s) of the Arizona law conflicts with what part(s) of the United States Constitution?

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-30-2010 4:14

TV, I didn't suggest that I thought the Arizona law was unconstitutional. You are assuming that I think it is because of the stance of my party. I merely asked EW if he thought that there was a constitutional conflict with the law. I am neutral on the question and will wait for the courtSleep to sort out the conflicting opinions. I am not and have never claimed to be an "authority" on the Constitution. Whatever the courtSleep decide I will yield to their authority on the matter. And I will not question their decision if it doesn't turn out the way I think it should. FYI.  

TVNews wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-30-2010 17:52

Then I misunderstood what you wrote. And if what you say about accepting their decision is true it makes you part of a very tiny fraction of liberals.

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-31-2010 4:27

EW: I hate to keep banging away on this, but I have another question for you (who I DO consider a Constitutional authority):

If the Arizona law does not conflict with the Federal law but reinforces it, why bother going to the trouble of writing and passing it? Why not just use the Federal law and enforce it as you as a state see fit? Why not just go about your business and make the Federal Attorney General's office challenge you on your method of enforcement? Put the onus on the Feds? This is a mystery to me.

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 08-31-2010 4:38

It is because the feds aren’t doing anything about the flood illegals that Arizona – the current focal point of entry – took matters into their own hands.  They have come to the conclusion – rightly or wrongly – that the administration is using the plight of border states to pass “comprehensive” immigration legislation (a buzz word for “amnesty” for future Democrats).  They have tried to “put the onus on the feds” and the administration yawns.  

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 09-01-2010 4:39

I guess you are right. It has become a game of one-upsmanship. Arizona is screaming, "Pay attention to us and our problem!". So they write their own law which they knew the Feds had to challenge through the courts.

So let's say that Arizona wins their case. They get to enforce their law as written. Will that then force the Feds to send more help? More soldiers? More drones? Which I assume and they claim was the point in the first place? I don't think it will. I think the Feds will do just what they are doing right now: Yawn. Some "token" National guardsmen. Some monies for training and hiring more border patrol guards. That kind of thing...And in the meantime, you can bet the Feds will keep an eagle eye out for any sign of "racial profiling' with the enforcement of the law. Paying particularly close attention to sheriff Joe Arpaio...

In the end I'd say Arizona has accomplished what they set out to do no matter how the court rulings go. They have focused the nation's and the world's attention on the [their] border problem. They have focused everyone's attention on the issue and in effect they are making everyone take a side. And they have made a great case against approaching solving the problem with comprehensive immigration reform. They are demanding that closing the border to illegal immigration must happen first. Kudos to Arizona. They win--hands down. I don't have a problem with that.

From a purely personal political standpoint, I wish they hadn't chosen to make their case right now with the current Administration in office. It certainly makes the current Administration look bad. Ahh well, that's politics...Now I'll shut up about Arizona and their law. PHEW!...FINALLY!

Eagle Watch wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 09-01-2010 4:54

Actually, they did write the law with passing SCOTUS muster in mind.  That’s why nothing is their law conflicts with federal law.  The effect of instituting the law will be an increased workload on ICE, not a ploy to get “more soldiers, more drones”.  Arizona just wants to collect infiltrators and hand them off to ICE to impound or deport.  They want them off of their ranches and streets.  It really is that simple.  

There view of “comprehensive immigration reform” is that nothing much matters until the border is under control.  They’re not against it, they just don’t want to go through another congressional refusal-to-fund episode after amnesty has been put in-place.  That only invites more illegals.  

TVNews wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 09-01-2010 13:31

Libby, This is simple. State and local authorities cannot enforce or prosecute federal law. An additional local law is required to allow locals to check for illegals and hold those they find for the feds.

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 09-11-2010 3:12

TV:

I see. But I must admit I am confused by what you say. Because here in Pa. and I assume throughout the U.S., when the police discover illegal immigrants being transported across the state, they apprehend them and hold them for ICE. They don't just release them and send them on their way or whatever. So in effect they are arresting them. Or at least detaining them.  I guess what Arizona wants to do is have the power to legally "arrest" them and charge them. Is that it? Either way, won't the result be the same as only the Federal Govt. has the power to deport them? I guess I'm missing something here.

TVNews wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 09-25-2010 16:56

The difference is that in your state establishing immigration status and holding illegals is optional.

The Arizona law requires officers to establish the immigration status of all persons in official contact with law enforcement. It further requires that anyone who's status is in question be held until their immigration status is established. Illegals are to be held for ICE.

Libby wrote re: Cradle of a Nation
on 09-27-2010 4:03

I see. Thank you, TV.

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