The campaigns are around the clubhouse turn and entering the home stretch – it’s now a sprint to the finish. At this point, all the indicators are for Democrats to take a drubbing: off-year elections nearly always result in losses for the in-power party; whenever the president’s favorables drop below 50% (Gallup has Obama at 44%), his party tends to take heavy losses in the off-year; the achievements of the Democrats are unpopular with the majority of voters – they can’t run on their record in a general.
The Democrats have three things going for them: they have raised more money than the Republicans; Republicans will overplay their hand; and Republicans will underdevelop an alternative agenda.
The money difference is going to be hard to leverage, as the DNC has told candidates that the words “TARP”, “healthcare” and “stimulus” are considered profane. All the Democrats can do is trash their opponents, and the public isn’t fond of negative campaigns. While it might salvage a district here and there, it’s not going to turn the tide. In those close races, it would behoove Republicans to run high-road, issues-based campaigns into the Democrats’ nasty campaigns, but the temptation will be too great, and many Republicans will stoop to the level of their opponents with name-calling and personal attacks. They will overplay the natural advantage they now enjoy.
The Democrats will try to make this election a competition between their vision and a parody of Republican obstructionism. Republicans need to keep the election a referendum on what the Democrats have already done. “We’re the party of ‘no’ because it’s a Constitution of ‘no’ – takeover of car companies; takeover of banking; takeover of student loans; takeover of healthcare.” “Trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see.” “2,000-page bills that nobody reads.” That sort of thing.
A strategy that I would promote would be to have candidates articulate an agenda of triage: stop the bleeding (deny further delusional spending); tie-off uncontrollable spigots (defund ObamaCare – we don’t know if a healthy American economy can afford this entitlement, but we do know if we can right now – we can’t); return unspent stimulus funds to Treasury (end this dysfunctional program); declare social experiments off limits until unemployment gets below 6 percent (no more social engineering until the economy is back up and humming). On the foreign front, tell our allies and enemies that the Great American Apology Tour is over. All of these issue positions poll over 50% nationally. They can all be stated matter-of-factly, without deriding an opponent, and all will keep the Republican out of the gutter while striking a resonant chord with Independent voters.
Posted
09-01-2010 9:34
by
Eagle Watch